Template approach, FPL Gameweek 1 (2026/27)
Template for FPL 2026/27 Gameweek 1 projected 62.4 points, in line with the template. Captain: Haaland. Formation: 3-4-3. It scored 68 points.
Greedy point-expectation squad following top 10k consensus ownership and 3-gameweek unweighted rolling EV.
Cutoff 14 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTCIllustrative samplesha256:8f4c2e9a…ef01Download snapshotIllustrative sample
- Projected
- 62.4 xP
- vs Template
- —
- Points
- 68
- Risk (spread of simulated points)
- 14.2
Captain candidates
Selected: Haaland
| Candidate | Fixture | Mean xP | 90th percentile | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland (MCI) · selected | CHE (A) | 8.72 | 15.4 | 13 | Dominant volume baseline, highest penalty equity in league (xGI > 0.90). |
| Palmer (CHE) | MCI (H) | 6.84 | 14.1 | 3 | Direct set-piece and penalty monopolist with high open-play assist conversion. |
| Saka (ARS) | WOL (H) | 7.15 | 13.8 | 12 | Elite home game metrics, corner duties, high conversion against low blocks. |
| Salah (LIV) | IPS (A) | 7.89 | 14.8 | 14 | Alternative premium anchor; excluded from base squad due to £12.5m structural trade-offs. |
Constraints
Binding means the limit was tight; slack means there was room left.
| Constraint | Expression | Value | Slack | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Squad Budget | Σ (c_i * x_i) ≤ B | £99.5m / £100.0m | £0.5m | Slack |
| Squad Roster Cardinality | Σ x_i = 15 | 15 players | 0 | Binding |
| Starting XI Formation Min Defenders | Σ (pos_DEF * s_i) ≥ 3 | 3 defenders | 0 | Binding |
| Club Roster Limit | Σ (club_k * x_i) ≤ 3 ∀ k | ARS: 3, MCI: 2, CHE: 1 | ARS binding (3/3) | Binding |
| Transfer Hit Boundary | Penalty = 4.0 * max(0, T - FT) | Hits: 0 | 1 FT buffer | Slack |
| Expected Minutes Filter | E[min_i] ≥ 60 for Starting XI | Min starting: 75 min | 15 min margin | Slack |
What would change the plan
Haaland Minutes Reduction (Down to 65 min)
E[min] drops from 89 to 65
Shifts captaincy to Palmer; reallocates £2.0m to upgrade bench
-2.30 xP
Arsenal Clean Sheet Probability Drift (-15%)
Raya + Saliba CS expectation reduced to 34%
Downgrade Saliba to Robinson; upgrade Rogers to Semenyo
-1.10 xP
Zero Bank Policy (Deploy All £0.5m Bank)
Hard budget equality constraint B_used = 100.0
Upgrade Muñoz (£5.0m) to Porro (£5.5m)
+0.65 xP
How to verify
Template approach, FPL Gameweek 1 (2026/27) was written to a JSON snapshot at 14 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC and hashed with SHA-256 (sha256:8f4c2e9a1b0d745e99812458c067e2a9b311fc90d813476fa33c79e652a9ef01). Download the snapshot to inspect the frozen inputs. The freeze rule is described in Methods.