{
  "id": "2026-27-gw3-baseline-vs-optimiser",
  "slug": "baseline-vs-optimiser",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "gw": 3,
  "title": "Rolling FT Heuristic vs MILP Active Bench Reconstruction",
  "scenario": "Policy Formulation Counterfactual",
  "category": "policy-comparison",
  "hypothesis": "Deploying the Free Transfer on Antonee Robinson (£4.6m) to extinguish zero-minute risk on departed Barco while promoting João Pedro into a 3-4-3 produces a higher expected floor than rolling 2 FTs for the post-international break window.",
  "methodologyNote": "Direct side-by-side simulation comparing heuristic consensus rules (rolling FT into international break) against MILP multi-period dual optimization with a 0.85 discount factor.",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "v2.4.1-rc3",
    "frozenAt": "2026-08-31T08:00:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:7c92b7a2d488e3fa0895c32b567b489ef0c239458e0a29367d5668b02ea6f381",
    "datasetId": "fpl-ep-202627-gw3-freeze",
    "solverEngine": "Highs-MILP-v1.7.2",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-08-31T08:04:22Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100.8
    },
    "isDemoSample": true
  },
  "controlArmName": "Control: Baseline Heuristic (Roll Transfer)",
  "treatmentArmName": "Treatment: MILP Solver Arm (Robinson + 3-4-3 Shape)",
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "control-roll-ft",
      "name": "Template Heuristic (Roll Transfer)",
      "label": "Control Arm",
      "isControl": true,
      "planSummary": {
        "formation": "3-5-2",
        "captain": "Haaland (2x)",
        "viceCaptain": "Palmer",
        "keyPlayers": [
          "Haaland (£15.2m)",
          "Palmer (£10.6m)",
          "Saka (£10.1m)",
          "Son (£10.0m)",
          "Rogers (£5.1m)"
        ],
        "bank": 0.2,
        "hitCost": 0,
        "chip": "none"
      },
      "projectedEP": 64.1,
      "realisedPoints": null,
      "deltaVsControl": 0,
      "varianceScore": 14.8,
      "tacticalShiftNotes": "Preserves 1 FT to hold 2 Free Transfers entering GW4. Leaves Barco (0 projected min) occupying the 3rd bench spot and starts Rogers vs Leicester away."
    },
    {
      "id": "treatment-milp-optimiser",
      "name": "MILP Solver Execution (Robinson + 3-4-3)",
      "label": "Counterfactual Treatment",
      "isControl": false,
      "planSummary": {
        "formation": "3-4-3",
        "captain": "Haaland (2x)",
        "viceCaptain": "Palmer",
        "keyPlayers": [
          "Haaland (£15.2m)",
          "Isak (£8.5m)",
          "João Pedro (£5.6m)",
          "Palmer (£10.6m)",
          "Saka (£10.1m)",
          "Robinson (£4.6m)"
        ],
        "bank": 0.2,
        "hitCost": 0,
        "chip": "none"
      },
      "projectedEP": 67.8,
      "realisedPoints": null,
      "deltaVsControl": 3.7,
      "varianceScore": 13.2,
      "tacticalShiftNotes": "Transfers Barco -> Robinson (£4.6m, IPS away) and shifts formation to 3-4-3 promoting in-form João Pedro into the starting XI."
    }
  ],
  "counterfactualFindings": "The simulation highlights that the marginal shadow value of saving an extra Free Transfer (+1.92 xP) was insufficient to offset the immediate +4.20 xP security and fixture matchup provided by Robinson, alongside promoting João Pedro (4.60 xP) over Rogers (4.15 xP). The MILP arm captured a net model delta of +3.7 xP while reducing lineup variance from 14.8 to 13.2.",
  "takeaways": [
    "Holding deadwood players on the bench degrades effective auto-sub floor equity by 1.84 xP.",
    "The 3-4-3 formation flex unlocked João Pedro's favorable Arsenal transition fixture equity while maintaining Rogers as first auto-sub.",
    "Realised settlement is live/pending official Premier League match completion."
  ],
  "relatedGw": 3
}