FPL what-ifs
Each what-if holds pre-deadline odds and minutes fixed, then changes one decision — a player, a chip, or an approach — and scores both paths against official points.
GW1 (2026/27)
Haaland Anchor vs Spread Quad-Midfield Reallocation
What-if for FPL 2026/27 Gameweek 1: Reallocating Haaland's £15.0m price tag across Salah (£12.5m), Palmer (£10.5m), Saka (£10.0m), and Son (£10.0m) yields superior aggregate expectation across 11 starters by eliminating sub-£5.5m midfield compromises. Before kick-off the alternative was +1.4 projected points versus the control (65.8 vs 67.2). After the matches, the control scored 74 points and the alternative scored 69.
- Control
- 65.8 xP · 74 pts
- Alternative
- 67.2 xP · 69 pts
- Model delta
- +1.4 xP
- Related
- GW1 decision
GW2 (2026/27)
Triple Captain Early Burn vs Baseline Preservation
What-if for FPL 2026/27 Gameweek 2: Deploying Triple Captain on Haaland against newly promoted Ipswich at the Etihad (projected 10.45 xP) produces higher certainty than waiting for spring Double Gameweeks where rotation and fixture congestion degrade per-minute output. Before kick-off the alternative was +10.4 projected points versus the control (75.9 vs 86.3). After the matches, the control scored 98 points and the alternative scored 115.
- Control
- 75.9 xP · 98 pts
- Alternative
- 86.3 xP · 115 pts
- Model delta
- +10.4 xP
- Related
- GW2 decision
GW3 (2026/27)
Rolling FT Heuristic vs MILP Active Bench Reconstruction
What-if for FPL 2026/27 Gameweek 3: Deploying the Free Transfer on Antonee Robinson (£4.6m) to extinguish zero-minute risk on departed Barco while promoting João Pedro into a 3-4-3 produces a higher expected floor than rolling 2 FTs for the post-international break window. Before kick-off the alternative was +3.7 projected points versus the control (64.1 vs 67.8). Match points are still pending.
- Control
- 64.1 xP
- Alternative
- 67.8 xP
- Model delta
- +3.7 xP
- Related
- GW3 decision