{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 8,
  "title": "Gameweek 8 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2025-10-18T10:00:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2025-10-18T10:00:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:37a129bbf7735452269f6b5d97aa1935a704a3205cc31ac7df9e42a510f881d7",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw8-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2025-10-18T10:00:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 2,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 4,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:381",
      "webName": "M.Salah",
      "fullName": "Mohamed Salah",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 14,
      "projectedMinutes": 88.6,
      "expectedPoints": 8.38,
      "realisedPoints": 2,
      "opponent": "MUN (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 15.2,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:82",
      "webName": "Semenyo",
      "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 8,
      "projectedMinutes": 87.4,
      "expectedPoints": 5.67,
      "realisedPoints": 4,
      "opponent": "CRY (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 46.2,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.2,
        "expectedPoints": 3.33,
        "realisedPoints": 9,
        "opponent": "LEE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.8,
        "expectedPoints": 5.19,
        "realisedPoints": 12,
        "opponent": "FUL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.4,
        "expectedPoints": 5.09,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "FUL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 78.6,
        "expectedPoints": 3.19,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 22
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:381",
        "webName": "M.Salah",
        "fullName": "Mohamed Salah",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 14,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.6,
        "expectedPoints": 8.38,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "MUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.4,
        "expectedPoints": 5.67,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:387",
        "webName": "Szoboszlai",
        "fullName": "Dominik Szoboszlai",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.2,
        "expectedPoints": 4.83,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "MUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:384",
        "webName": "Gakpo",
        "fullName": "Cody Gakpo",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 66.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.67,
        "realisedPoints": 7,
        "opponent": "MUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:427",
        "webName": "Reijnders",
        "fullName": "Tijjani Reijnders",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5,
        "projectedMinutes": 76.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.31,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.9
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:249",
        "webName": "João Pedro",
        "fullName": "João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.3,
        "expectedPoints": 5.33,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "NFO (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 34.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:64",
        "webName": "Watkins",
        "fullName": "Ollie Watkins",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 8.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 78.5,
        "expectedPoints": 4.74,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "TOT (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 13
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 72.9,
        "expectedPoints": 3.03,
        "realisedPoints": 5,
        "opponent": "NFO (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.9,
        "expectedPoints": 2.96,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "BUR (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:568",
        "webName": "Pedro Porro",
        "fullName": "Pedro Porro Sauceda",
        "team": "TOT",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 71.1,
        "expectedPoints": 2.96,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 11.7,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 7.9,
        "expectedPoints": 0.48,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "NFO (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.4,
        "expectedPoints": 5.09,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "FUL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.4,
        "expectedPoints": 5.67,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:291",
        "webName": "Tarkowski",
        "fullName": "James Tarkowski",
        "team": "EVE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.2,
        "expectedPoints": 3.05,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "MCI (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 5,
        "selectedByPercent": 12.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:449",
        "webName": "B.Fernandes",
        "fullName": "Bruno Borges Fernandes",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 10.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.4,
        "expectedPoints": 3.54,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "LIV (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 48
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:8",
          "webName": "J.Timber",
          "team": "ARS",
          "position": "DEF",
          "cost": 5.8,
          "expectedPoints": 5.09
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:291",
          "webName": "Tarkowski",
          "team": "EVE",
          "position": "DEF",
          "sellPrice": 5.5,
          "expectedPoints": 3.05
        },
        "netCostDelta": 0.3,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 2.04,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      },
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:82",
          "webName": "Semenyo",
          "team": "MCI",
          "position": "MID",
          "cost": 7.8,
          "expectedPoints": 5.67
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:449",
          "webName": "B.Fernandes",
          "team": "MUN",
          "position": "MID",
          "sellPrice": 9,
          "expectedPoints": 3.54
        },
        "netCostDelta": -1.2,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 2.13,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 66.7,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 52
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 60.3,
      "realisedPoints": 36,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "João Pedro",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "36 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Tarkowski → J.Timber, B.Fernandes → Semenyo",
      "objectiveEP": 66.7,
      "realisedPoints": 52,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "Semenyo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 16,
      "realisedRankEffect": "52 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Tarkowski → J.Timber, B.Fernandes → Semenyo",
      "objectiveEP": 66.7,
      "realisedPoints": 52,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "Semenyo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 16,
      "realisedRankEffect": "52 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 8. The optimiser captained M.Salah (vice Semenyo), formation 3-5-2, and made 2 transfers (Tarkowski out, J.Timber in; B.Fernandes out, Semenyo in). It scored 52 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 66.7 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Tarkowski to J.Timber; B.Fernandes to Semenyo.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}