{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 7,
  "title": "Gameweek 7 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2025-10-03T17:30:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2025-10-03T17:30:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:3113a56cdea42980275fff919e88e7e894bb81d302b0cb037ad0ca9f2070e37f",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw7-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2025-10-03T17:30:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 1.1,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 4,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:381",
      "webName": "M.Salah",
      "fullName": "Mohamed Salah",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 14,
      "projectedMinutes": 88.5,
      "expectedPoints": 8,
      "realisedPoints": 2,
      "opponent": "CHE (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 15.2,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:64",
      "webName": "Watkins",
      "fullName": "Ollie Watkins",
      "team": "AVL",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 8.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 80.9,
      "expectedPoints": 5.32,
      "realisedPoints": 2,
      "opponent": "BUR (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
      "selectedByPercent": 13,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 72.6,
        "expectedPoints": 2.8,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "LIV (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.5,
        "expectedPoints": 5.26,
        "realisedPoints": 9,
        "opponent": "WHU (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.1,
        "expectedPoints": 3.8,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "FUL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 22
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:291",
        "webName": "Tarkowski",
        "fullName": "James Tarkowski",
        "team": "EVE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.9,
        "expectedPoints": 3.54,
        "realisedPoints": 5,
        "opponent": "CRY (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 12.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:381",
        "webName": "M.Salah",
        "fullName": "Mohamed Salah",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 14,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.5,
        "expectedPoints": 8,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "CHE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:449",
        "webName": "B.Fernandes",
        "fullName": "Bruno Borges Fernandes",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 10.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.81,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "SUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 48
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:387",
        "webName": "Szoboszlai",
        "fullName": "Dominik Szoboszlai",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.9,
        "expectedPoints": 4.6,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "CHE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:427",
        "webName": "Reijnders",
        "fullName": "Tijjani Reijnders",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5,
        "projectedMinutes": 78.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.26,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "BRE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.9
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:384",
        "webName": "Gakpo",
        "fullName": "Cody Gakpo",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 65.8,
        "expectedPoints": 4.21,
        "realisedPoints": 7,
        "opponent": "CHE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:64",
        "webName": "Watkins",
        "fullName": "Ollie Watkins",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 8.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.9,
        "expectedPoints": 5.32,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BUR (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 13,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:249",
        "webName": "João Pedro",
        "fullName": "João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.7,
        "expectedPoints": 4.98,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "LIV (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 34.8
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.4,
        "expectedPoints": 2.73,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "AVL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.2,
        "expectedPoints": 3.28,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "TOT (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:568",
        "webName": "Pedro Porro",
        "fullName": "Pedro Porro Sauceda",
        "team": "TOT",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 70.2,
        "expectedPoints": 2.74,
        "realisedPoints": 7,
        "opponent": "LEE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 11.7,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 5.3,
        "expectedPoints": 0.29,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "LIV (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.5,
        "expectedPoints": 5.26,
        "realisedPoints": 9,
        "opponent": "WHU (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:506",
        "webName": "Murillo",
        "fullName": "Murillo Costa dos Santos",
        "team": "NFO",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 38.3,
        "expectedPoints": 1.23,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "NEW (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 1.8
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:5",
          "webName": "Gabriel",
          "team": "ARS",
          "position": "DEF",
          "cost": 6.1,
          "expectedPoints": 5.26
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:506",
          "webName": "Murillo",
          "team": "NFO",
          "position": "DEF",
          "sellPrice": 5.4,
          "expectedPoints": 1.23
        },
        "netCostDelta": 0.7,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 4.03,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 65,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 40
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 61.8,
      "realisedPoints": 32,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "Watkins",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "32 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Murillo → Gabriel",
      "objectiveEP": 65,
      "realisedPoints": 40,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "Watkins",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 8,
      "realisedRankEffect": "40 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Murillo → Gabriel",
      "objectiveEP": 65,
      "realisedPoints": 40,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "Watkins",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 8,
      "realisedRankEffect": "40 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 7. The optimiser captained M.Salah (vice Watkins), formation 3-5-2, and made one transfer (Murillo out, Gabriel in). It scored 40 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 65.0 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Murillo to Gabriel.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}