{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 32,
  "title": "Gameweek 32 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2026-04-10T17:30:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2026-04-10T17:30:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:a63af706630f37b0078500a2255e0d29025015229b565381cd4fc6db58f0d50b",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw32-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-04-10T17:30:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 1.3,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 3,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:449",
      "webName": "B.Fernandes",
      "fullName": "Bruno Borges Fernandes",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 10.4,
      "projectedMinutes": 83.9,
      "expectedPoints": 6.66,
      "realisedPoints": 4,
      "opponent": "LEE (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
      "selectedByPercent": 48,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:5",
      "webName": "Gabriel",
      "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "cost": 7.3,
      "projectedMinutes": 78.5,
      "expectedPoints": 5.99,
      "realisedPoints": 4,
      "opponent": "BOU (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.1,
        "expectedPoints": 2.78,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BHA (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 78.5,
        "expectedPoints": 5.99,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "BOU (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 75,
        "expectedPoints": 4.71,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "BOU (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.4,
        "expectedPoints": 4.27,
        "realisedPoints": 15,
        "opponent": "CHE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:449",
        "webName": "B.Fernandes",
        "fullName": "Bruno Borges Fernandes",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 10.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.9,
        "expectedPoints": 6.66,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "LEE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 48,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.2,
        "expectedPoints": 5.47,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "CHE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:119",
        "webName": "Mbeumo",
        "fullName": "Bryan Mbeumo",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 74.7,
        "expectedPoints": 4.95,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "LEE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 15
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:450",
        "webName": "Cunha",
        "fullName": "Matheus Santos Carneiro da Cunha",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 76,
        "expectedPoints": 4.93,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "LEE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.7
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:47",
        "webName": "Rogers",
        "fullName": "Morgan Rogers",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.5,
        "realisedPoints": 5,
        "opponent": "NFO (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 20.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:249",
        "webName": "João Pedro",
        "fullName": "João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 77,
        "expectedPoints": 5.04,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "MCI (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 34.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:136",
        "webName": "Thiago",
        "fullName": "Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues",
        "team": "BRE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.86,
        "realisedPoints": 13,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 30.2
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:670",
        "webName": "Roefs",
        "fullName": "Robin Roefs",
        "team": "SUN",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 39.3,
        "expectedPoints": 1.79,
        "realisedPoints": 11,
        "opponent": "TOT (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:226",
        "webName": "Chalobah",
        "fullName": "Trevoh Chalobah",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 69.3,
        "expectedPoints": 3.29,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "MCI (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.8,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.7,
        "expectedPoints": 2.62,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "MUN (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 5.9,
        "expectedPoints": 0.32,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "MCI (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.2,
        "expectedPoints": 5.47,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "CHE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:329",
        "webName": "Wilson",
        "fullName": "Harry Wilson",
        "team": "FUL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 62.9,
        "expectedPoints": 3.63,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "LIV (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 17.4
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:82",
          "webName": "Semenyo",
          "team": "MCI",
          "position": "MID",
          "cost": 8.3,
          "expectedPoints": 5.47
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:329",
          "webName": "Wilson",
          "team": "FUL",
          "position": "MID",
          "sellPrice": 6,
          "expectedPoints": 3.63
        },
        "netCostDelta": 2.3,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 1.84,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 64.4,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 53
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 56.7,
      "realisedPoints": 37,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "B.Fernandes",
      "viceCaptain": "João Pedro",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "37 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Wilson → Semenyo",
      "objectiveEP": 64.4,
      "realisedPoints": 53,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "B.Fernandes",
      "viceCaptain": "Gabriel",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 16,
      "realisedRankEffect": "53 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Wilson → Semenyo",
      "objectiveEP": 64.4,
      "realisedPoints": 53,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "B.Fernandes",
      "viceCaptain": "Gabriel",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 16,
      "realisedRankEffect": "53 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 32. The optimiser captained B.Fernandes (vice Gabriel), formation 3-5-2, and made one transfer (Wilson out, Semenyo in). It scored 53 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 64.4 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Wilson to Semenyo.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}