{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 30,
  "title": "Gameweek 30 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2026-03-14T13:30:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2026-03-14T13:30:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:54349e561837777e03df98bc68bb8d12bcb7fb523088f5ed6cc605e478652ad5",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw30-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-03-14T13:30:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "4-4-2",
    "bank": 0.3,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 5,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:430",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 14.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 71.2,
      "expectedPoints": 6.08,
      "realisedPoints": 2,
      "opponent": "WHU (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:82",
      "webName": "Semenyo",
      "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 8,
      "projectedMinutes": 86.2,
      "expectedPoints": 6.03,
      "realisedPoints": 2,
      "opponent": "WHU (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 46.2,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:670",
        "webName": "Roefs",
        "fullName": "Robin Roefs",
        "team": "SUN",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 71.5,
        "expectedPoints": 3.03,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "BHA (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 78.2,
        "expectedPoints": 5.87,
        "realisedPoints": 9,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 78,
        "expectedPoints": 4.91,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:226",
        "webName": "Chalobah",
        "fullName": "Trevoh Chalobah",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.64,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "NEW (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.6,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "WHU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.2,
        "expectedPoints": 6.03,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "WHU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.5,
        "expectedPoints": 5.41,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:450",
        "webName": "Cunha",
        "fullName": "Matheus Santos Carneiro da Cunha",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 76.9,
        "expectedPoints": 4.59,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.7
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:47",
        "webName": "Rogers",
        "fullName": "Morgan Rogers",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.31,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "MUN (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 20.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 71.2,
        "expectedPoints": 6.08,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "WHU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:136",
        "webName": "Thiago",
        "fullName": "Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues",
        "team": "BRE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.4,
        "expectedPoints": 5.23,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "WOL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 30.2
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 88,
        "expectedPoints": 2.8,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "BOU (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:329",
        "webName": "Wilson",
        "fullName": "Harry Wilson",
        "team": "FUL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 60.1,
        "expectedPoints": 3.83,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "NFO (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 17.4,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.8,
        "expectedPoints": 2.66,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 6,
        "expectedPoints": 0.37,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "NEW (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:450",
        "webName": "Cunha",
        "fullName": "Matheus Santos Carneiro da Cunha",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 76.9,
        "expectedPoints": 4.59,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.7
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:382",
        "webName": "Wirtz",
        "fullName": "Florian Wirtz",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 30.8,
        "expectedPoints": 2.02,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "TOT (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.5
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:450",
          "webName": "Cunha",
          "team": "MUN",
          "position": "MID",
          "cost": 8,
          "expectedPoints": 4.59
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:382",
          "webName": "Wirtz",
          "team": "LIV",
          "position": "MID",
          "sellPrice": 8.3,
          "expectedPoints": 2.02
        },
        "netCostDelta": -0.3,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 2.57,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 68,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 45
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 60.5,
      "realisedPoints": 47,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "B.Fernandes",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "47 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Wirtz → Cunha",
      "objectiveEP": 68,
      "realisedPoints": 45,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Semenyo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -2,
      "realisedRankEffect": "45 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Wirtz → Cunha",
      "objectiveEP": 68,
      "realisedPoints": 45,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Semenyo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -2,
      "realisedRankEffect": "45 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 30. The optimiser captained Haaland (vice Semenyo), formation 4-4-2, and made one transfer (Wirtz out, Cunha in). It scored 45 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 68.0 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Wirtz to Cunha.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}