{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 29,
  "title": "Gameweek 29 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2026-03-03T18:00:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2026-03-03T18:00:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:af439a8b66f9e28c5777f1d6fe36620980827c4460886ec10fa2247a5f8b1aa1",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw29-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-03-03T18:00:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "4-4-2",
    "bank": 0,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 5,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:82",
      "webName": "Semenyo",
      "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 8,
      "projectedMinutes": 86.1,
      "expectedPoints": 6.21,
      "realisedPoints": 7,
      "opponent": "NFO (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 46.2,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:430",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 14.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 63.6,
      "expectedPoints": 5.73,
      "realisedPoints": 2,
      "opponent": "NFO (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:670",
        "webName": "Roefs",
        "fullName": "Robin Roefs",
        "team": "SUN",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.7,
        "expectedPoints": 3.41,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "LEE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 77.9,
        "expectedPoints": 5.46,
        "realisedPoints": 11,
        "opponent": "BHA (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.2,
        "expectedPoints": 4.85,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "NFO (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.58,
        "realisedPoints": 13,
        "opponent": "BHA (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:226",
        "webName": "Chalobah",
        "fullName": "Trevoh Chalobah",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.2,
        "expectedPoints": 4.03,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "AVL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.1,
        "expectedPoints": 6.21,
        "realisedPoints": 7,
        "opponent": "NFO (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 82,
        "expectedPoints": 5.26,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "BHA (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:329",
        "webName": "Wilson",
        "fullName": "Harry Wilson",
        "team": "FUL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 72.9,
        "expectedPoints": 5.14,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "WHU (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 17.4
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:47",
        "webName": "Rogers",
        "fullName": "Morgan Rogers",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.81,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "CHE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 20.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 63.6,
        "expectedPoints": 5.73,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "NFO (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:136",
        "webName": "Thiago",
        "fullName": "Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues",
        "team": "BRE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.56,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BOU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 30.2
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.9,
        "expectedPoints": 2.53,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "EVE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.7,
        "expectedPoints": 3.01,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "SUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:382",
        "webName": "Wirtz",
        "fullName": "Florian Wirtz",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 46.6,
        "expectedPoints": 3,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.5,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 6,
        "expectedPoints": 0.32,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "AVL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:670",
        "webName": "Roefs",
        "fullName": "Robin Roefs",
        "team": "SUN",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.7,
        "expectedPoints": 3.41,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "LEE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:101",
        "webName": "Kelleher",
        "fullName": "Caoimhín Kelleher",
        "team": "BRE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 71.6,
        "expectedPoints": 2.85,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "BOU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 12
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:670",
          "webName": "Roefs",
          "team": "SUN",
          "position": "GKP",
          "cost": 4.9,
          "expectedPoints": 3.41
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:101",
          "webName": "Kelleher",
          "team": "BRE",
          "position": "GKP",
          "sellPrice": 4.6,
          "expectedPoints": 2.85
        },
        "netCostDelta": 0.3,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 0.56,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 67.5,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 53
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 57.3,
      "realisedPoints": 98,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "M.Salah",
      "viceCaptain": "B.Fernandes",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "98 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Kelleher → Roefs",
      "objectiveEP": 67.5,
      "realisedPoints": 53,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Semenyo",
      "viceCaptain": "Haaland",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -45,
      "realisedRankEffect": "53 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Kelleher → Roefs",
      "objectiveEP": 67.5,
      "realisedPoints": 53,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Semenyo",
      "viceCaptain": "Haaland",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -45,
      "realisedRankEffect": "53 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 29. The optimiser captained Semenyo (vice Haaland), formation 4-4-2, and made one transfer (Kelleher out, Roefs in). It scored 53 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 67.5 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Kelleher to Roefs.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}