{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 25,
  "title": "Gameweek 25 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2026-02-06T18:30:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2026-02-06T18:30:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:5bb74b6fd893c574ada86551d5cd85b2c2f79525033d01d81b98d4a752e7bbc5",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw25-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-02-06T18:30:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 1.8,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 5,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:5",
      "webName": "Gabriel",
      "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "cost": 7.3,
      "projectedMinutes": 76.4,
      "expectedPoints": 5.78,
      "realisedPoints": 6,
      "opponent": "SUN (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
      "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:430",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 14.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 73.1,
      "expectedPoints": 5.6,
      "realisedPoints": 11,
      "opponent": "LIV (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
      "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.5,
        "expectedPoints": 4.28,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 76.4,
        "expectedPoints": 5.78,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "SUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:226",
        "webName": "Chalobah",
        "fullName": "Trevoh Chalobah",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.9,
        "expectedPoints": 5.03,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 70.7,
        "expectedPoints": 3.43,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "LIV (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 83,
        "expectedPoints": 5.41,
        "realisedPoints": 5,
        "opponent": "SUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.6,
        "expectedPoints": 5.26,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "LIV (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:329",
        "webName": "Wilson",
        "fullName": "Harry Wilson",
        "team": "FUL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 78,
        "expectedPoints": 5.12,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 17.4
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:47",
        "webName": "Rogers",
        "fullName": "Morgan Rogers",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.5,
        "expectedPoints": 4.78,
        "realisedPoints": 10,
        "opponent": "BOU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 20.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:382",
        "webName": "Wirtz",
        "fullName": "Florian Wirtz",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 77.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.65,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "MCI (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.5
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 73.1,
        "expectedPoints": 5.6,
        "realisedPoints": 11,
        "opponent": "LIV (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:136",
        "webName": "Thiago",
        "fullName": "Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues",
        "team": "BRE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.9,
        "expectedPoints": 4.64,
        "realisedPoints": 5,
        "opponent": "NEW (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 30.2
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.6,
        "expectedPoints": 3.34,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "WHU (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.9,
        "expectedPoints": 3.36,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 22,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.7,
        "expectedPoints": 2.96,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "NFO (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 6.2,
        "expectedPoints": 0.39,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:329",
        "webName": "Wilson",
        "fullName": "Harry Wilson",
        "team": "FUL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 78,
        "expectedPoints": 5.12,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 17.4
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:488",
        "webName": "Bruno G.",
        "fullName": "Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura",
        "team": "NEW",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 6.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 51.2,
        "expectedPoints": 2.98,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "BRE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 6.5
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:329",
          "webName": "Wilson",
          "team": "FUL",
          "position": "MID",
          "cost": 6.1,
          "expectedPoints": 5.12
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:488",
          "webName": "Bruno G.",
          "team": "NEW",
          "position": "MID",
          "sellPrice": 7.1,
          "expectedPoints": 2.98
        },
        "netCostDelta": -1,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 2.14,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 67,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 58
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 57.6,
      "realisedPoints": 66,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "B.Fernandes",
      "viceCaptain": "João Pedro",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "66 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Bruno G. → Wilson",
      "objectiveEP": 67,
      "realisedPoints": 58,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Gabriel",
      "viceCaptain": "Haaland",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -8,
      "realisedRankEffect": "58 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Bruno G. → Wilson",
      "objectiveEP": 67,
      "realisedPoints": 58,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Gabriel",
      "viceCaptain": "Haaland",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -8,
      "realisedRankEffect": "58 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 25. The optimiser captained Gabriel (vice Haaland), formation 3-5-2, and made one transfer (Bruno G. out, Wilson in). It scored 58 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 67.0 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Bruno G. to Wilson.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}