{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 21,
  "title": "Gameweek 21 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2026-01-06T18:30:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2026-01-06T18:30:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:6b8ac10a9cd89b37577925c8b02643a191d4644d8a140b8bcdbcb2560364a8b7",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw21-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2026-01-06T18:30:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 0.5,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 5,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:430",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 14.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 88.5,
      "expectedPoints": 7.89,
      "realisedPoints": 6,
      "opponent": "BHA (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:414",
      "webName": "Foden",
      "fullName": "Phil Foden",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 8,
      "projectedMinutes": 79.3,
      "expectedPoints": 5.58,
      "realisedPoints": 2,
      "opponent": "BHA (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 7.8,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 72,
        "expectedPoints": 3.14,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "FUL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:291",
        "webName": "Tarkowski",
        "fullName": "James Tarkowski",
        "team": "EVE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.2,
        "expectedPoints": 4.63,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "WOL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 12.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:226",
        "webName": "Chalobah",
        "fullName": "Trevoh Chalobah",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.4,
        "expectedPoints": 4.56,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "FUL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "CRY",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.8,
        "expectedPoints": 3.88,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "AVL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:414",
        "webName": "Foden",
        "fullName": "Phil Foden",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.3,
        "expectedPoints": 5.58,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BHA (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 7.8,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.2,
        "expectedPoints": 5.55,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "TOT (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:47",
        "webName": "Rogers",
        "fullName": "Morgan Rogers",
        "team": "AVL",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 85,
        "expectedPoints": 4.95,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 20.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 67.4,
        "expectedPoints": 4.56,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "LIV (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:450",
        "webName": "Cunha",
        "fullName": "Matheus Santos Carneiro da Cunha",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 76.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.54,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BUR (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.7
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.5,
        "expectedPoints": 7.89,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "BHA (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:136",
        "webName": "Thiago",
        "fullName": "Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues",
        "team": "BRE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 80.3,
        "expectedPoints": 5.13,
        "realisedPoints": 12,
        "opponent": "SUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 30.2
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.2,
        "expectedPoints": 3.03,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "MUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 82.3,
        "expectedPoints": 3.51,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "TOT (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 22,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 41.8,
        "expectedPoints": 1.27,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "NEW (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 6.4,
        "expectedPoints": 0.36,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "FUL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:291",
        "webName": "Tarkowski",
        "fullName": "James Tarkowski",
        "team": "EVE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.2,
        "expectedPoints": 4.63,
        "realisedPoints": 4,
        "opponent": "WOL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 12.6
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 65.5,
        "expectedPoints": 3.98,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "LIV (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:291",
          "webName": "Tarkowski",
          "team": "EVE",
          "position": "DEF",
          "cost": 5.6,
          "expectedPoints": 4.63
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:8",
          "webName": "J.Timber",
          "team": "ARS",
          "position": "DEF",
          "sellPrice": 6.1,
          "expectedPoints": 3.98
        },
        "netCostDelta": -0.5,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 0.65,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 69.5,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 55
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 50.2,
      "realisedPoints": 38,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Tarkowski",
      "viceCaptain": "Watkins",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "38 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "J.Timber → Tarkowski",
      "objectiveEP": 69.5,
      "realisedPoints": 55,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Foden",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 17,
      "realisedRankEffect": "55 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "J.Timber → Tarkowski",
      "objectiveEP": 69.5,
      "realisedPoints": 55,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Foden",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 17,
      "realisedRankEffect": "55 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 21. The optimiser captained Haaland (vice Foden), formation 3-5-2, and made one transfer (J.Timber out, Tarkowski in). It scored 55 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 69.5 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: J.Timber to Tarkowski.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}