{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 16,
  "title": "Gameweek 16 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2025-12-13T13:30:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2025-12-13T13:30:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:6c274351466f99cdc738b210bf5c37038061f192134becfcad07fbd9a93d9bb4",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw16-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2025-12-13T13:30:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 2.1,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 5,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:430",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 14.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 84.6,
      "expectedPoints": 6.96,
      "realisedPoints": 13,
      "opponent": "CRY (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:119",
      "webName": "Mbeumo",
      "fullName": "Bryan Mbeumo",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 8.3,
      "projectedMinutes": 88.8,
      "expectedPoints": 5.73,
      "realisedPoints": 2,
      "opponent": "BOU (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
      "selectedByPercent": 15,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.5,
        "expectedPoints": 4.11,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:226",
        "webName": "Chalobah",
        "fullName": "Trevoh Chalobah",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.1,
        "expectedPoints": 4.84,
        "realisedPoints": 9,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.8
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 74.9,
        "expectedPoints": 4.8,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "WOL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "CRY",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 86,
        "expectedPoints": 4.5,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "MCI (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:119",
        "webName": "Mbeumo",
        "fullName": "Bryan Mbeumo",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.8,
        "expectedPoints": 5.73,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BOU (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 82,
        "expectedPoints": 5.4,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "WOL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.6,
        "expectedPoints": 4.79,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "MUN (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:384",
        "webName": "Gakpo",
        "fullName": "Cody Gakpo",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 71.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.61,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "BHA (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:387",
        "webName": "Szoboszlai",
        "fullName": "Dominik Szoboszlai",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.4,
        "expectedPoints": 4.46,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "BHA (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.6,
        "expectedPoints": 6.96,
        "realisedPoints": 13,
        "opponent": "CRY (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:714",
        "webName": "Woltemade",
        "fullName": "Nick Woltemade",
        "team": "NEW",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 6.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 79.9,
        "expectedPoints": 4.8,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "SUN (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 6.5
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.4,
        "expectedPoints": 3.16,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "FUL (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.5,
        "expectedPoints": 2.66,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BRE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 61.3,
        "expectedPoints": 2.49,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "MUN (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 22,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 18.6,
        "expectedPoints": 1.12,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:226",
        "webName": "Chalobah",
        "fullName": "Trevoh Chalobah",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.4,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.1,
        "expectedPoints": 4.84,
        "realisedPoints": 9,
        "opponent": "EVE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 8.8
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:256",
        "webName": "Muñoz",
        "fullName": "Daniel Muñoz Mejía",
        "team": "CRY",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 70.7,
        "expectedPoints": 3.9,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "MCI (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 9.2
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:226",
          "webName": "Chalobah",
          "team": "CHE",
          "position": "DEF",
          "cost": 5.2,
          "expectedPoints": 4.84
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:256",
          "webName": "Muñoz",
          "team": "CRY",
          "position": "DEF",
          "sellPrice": 5.9,
          "expectedPoints": 3.9
        },
        "netCostDelta": -0.7,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 0.94,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 69.2,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 59
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 52.3,
      "realisedPoints": 56,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "B.Fernandes",
      "viceCaptain": "Sánchez",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "56 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Muñoz → Chalobah",
      "objectiveEP": 69.2,
      "realisedPoints": 59,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Mbeumo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 3,
      "realisedRankEffect": "59 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Muñoz → Chalobah",
      "objectiveEP": 69.2,
      "realisedPoints": 59,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Mbeumo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 3,
      "realisedRankEffect": "59 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 16. The optimiser captained Haaland (vice Mbeumo), formation 3-5-2, and made one transfer (Muñoz out, Chalobah in). It scored 59 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 69.2 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Muñoz to Chalobah.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}