{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "gw": 15,
  "title": "Gameweek 15 reconstructive replay",
  "deadline": "2025-12-06T11:00:00Z",
  "status": "completed",
  "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
  "provenance": {
    "modelVersion": "live_faithful_option_value",
    "frozenAt": "2025-12-06T11:00:00Z",
    "snapshotHash": "sha256:446ba2ce9a08a77f3325a441eede536ff76229f331355d39d744c4512b60ed74",
    "datasetId": "fpl-lab-2025-26-gw15-replay",
    "solverEngine": "FPL lab reconstructive replay",
    "executionTimestamp": "2025-12-06T11:00:00Z",
    "solverParameters": {
      "horizonWeeks": 5,
      "decayRate": 0.85,
      "hitPenalty": 4,
      "riskAversion": 0.15,
      "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8,
      "maxPlayersPerClub": 3,
      "teamBudgetCap": 100
    },
    "isDemoSample": false,
    "datasetKind": "historical-replay",
    "limitations": [
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time.",
      "Press and injury notes were not locked before the deadline.",
      "Prices are not exact pre-deadline quotes.",
      "Raw community xP tables were not used as the pre-deadline forecast."
    ]
  },
  "validatedPlan": {
    "armId": "optimiser",
    "armName": "Optimiser (forecast)",
    "formation": "3-5-2",
    "bank": 1.4,
    "hitCost": 0,
    "freeTransfersAvailable": 4,
    "chipUsed": "none",
    "captain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:430",
      "webName": "Haaland",
      "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "cost": 14.7,
      "projectedMinutes": 88.2,
      "expectedPoints": 8.04,
      "realisedPoints": 2,
      "opponent": "SUN (H)",
      "isHome": true,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
      "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
      "isCaptain": true,
      "multiplier": 2
    },
    "viceCaptain": {
      "id": "player:2025-26:119",
      "webName": "Mbeumo",
      "fullName": "Bryan Mbeumo",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "cost": 8.3,
      "projectedMinutes": 88.7,
      "expectedPoints": 5.75,
      "realisedPoints": 8,
      "opponent": "WOL (A)",
      "isHome": false,
      "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
      "selectedByPercent": 15,
      "isViceCaptain": true
    },
    "startingXI": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:220",
        "webName": "Sánchez",
        "fullName": "Robert Lynch Sánchez",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4.8,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.4,
        "expectedPoints": 3.72,
        "realisedPoints": 10,
        "opponent": "BOU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 10.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:256",
        "webName": "Muñoz",
        "fullName": "Daniel Muñoz Mejía",
        "team": "CRY",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 87.9,
        "expectedPoints": 5.08,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "FUL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 9.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "CRY",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.8,
        "expectedPoints": 4.59,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "FUL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:8",
        "webName": "J.Timber",
        "fullName": "Jurriën Timber",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 6,
        "projectedMinutes": 74.5,
        "expectedPoints": 4.24,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "AVL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:119",
        "webName": "Mbeumo",
        "fullName": "Bryan Mbeumo",
        "team": "MUN",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.7,
        "expectedPoints": 5.75,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "WOL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 15,
        "isViceCaptain": true
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:384",
        "webName": "Gakpo",
        "fullName": "Cody Gakpo",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 72.3,
        "expectedPoints": 4.8,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "LEE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.6
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:21",
        "webName": "Rice",
        "fullName": "Declan Rice",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 81.8,
        "expectedPoints": 4.68,
        "realisedPoints": 6,
        "opponent": "AVL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 23.3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:387",
        "webName": "Szoboszlai",
        "fullName": "Dominik Szoboszlai",
        "team": "LIV",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 7.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 83.4,
        "expectedPoints": 4.36,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "LEE (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 15.1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:82",
        "webName": "Semenyo",
        "fullName": "Antoine Semenyo",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "MID",
        "cost": 8,
        "projectedMinutes": 70.4,
        "expectedPoints": 4.17,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "CHE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 46.2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:430",
        "webName": "Haaland",
        "fullName": "Erling Haaland",
        "team": "MCI",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 14.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 88.2,
        "expectedPoints": 8.04,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "SUN (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 2,
        "selectedByPercent": 62.5,
        "isCaptain": true,
        "multiplier": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:714",
        "webName": "Woltemade",
        "fullName": "Nick Woltemade",
        "team": "NEW",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 6.7,
        "projectedMinutes": 80,
        "expectedPoints": 5.27,
        "realisedPoints": 2,
        "opponent": "BUR (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 1,
        "selectedByPercent": 6.5
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:470",
        "webName": "Dúbravka",
        "fullName": "Martin Dúbravka",
        "team": "BUR",
        "position": "GKP",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 86.1,
        "expectedPoints": 2.62,
        "realisedPoints": 3,
        "opponent": "NEW (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 25.7,
        "benchOrder": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:348",
        "webName": "Rodon",
        "fullName": "Joe Rodon",
        "team": "LEE",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 3.9,
        "projectedMinutes": 84.4,
        "expectedPoints": 2.72,
        "realisedPoints": 1,
        "opponent": "LIV (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 3,
        "benchOrder": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:72",
        "webName": "Senesi",
        "fullName": "Marcos Senesi Barón",
        "team": "BOU",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.2,
        "projectedMinutes": 65.8,
        "expectedPoints": 2.65,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "CHE (H)",
        "isHome": true,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 22,
        "benchOrder": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:252",
        "webName": "Marc Guiu",
        "fullName": "Marc Guiu Paz",
        "team": "CHE",
        "position": "FWD",
        "cost": 4,
        "projectedMinutes": 11.4,
        "expectedPoints": 0.68,
        "realisedPoints": 0,
        "opponent": "BOU (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 5.2,
        "benchOrder": 4
      }
    ],
    "transfersIn": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:260",
        "webName": "Guéhi",
        "fullName": "Marc Guéhi",
        "team": "CRY",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 5.1,
        "projectedMinutes": 85.8,
        "expectedPoints": 4.59,
        "realisedPoints": 8,
        "opponent": "FUL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 3,
        "selectedByPercent": 32.6
      }
    ],
    "transfersOut": [
      {
        "id": "player:2025-26:5",
        "webName": "Gabriel",
        "fullName": "Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães",
        "team": "ARS",
        "position": "DEF",
        "cost": 7.3,
        "projectedMinutes": 33.9,
        "expectedPoints": 2.14,
        "realisedPoints": null,
        "opponent": "AVL (A)",
        "isHome": false,
        "fixtureDifficulty": 4,
        "selectedByPercent": 45.4
      }
    ],
    "transferActions": [
      {
        "playerIn": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:260",
          "webName": "Guéhi",
          "team": "MCI",
          "position": "DEF",
          "cost": 5.1,
          "expectedPoints": 4.59
        },
        "playerOut": {
          "id": "player:2025-26:5",
          "webName": "Gabriel",
          "team": "ARS",
          "position": "DEF",
          "sellPrice": 6.2,
          "expectedPoints": 2.14
        },
        "netCostDelta": -1.1,
        "netXPDelta3GW": 2.45,
        "rationale": "Selected by this approach at the reconstructed cutoff."
      }
    ],
    "projectedSquadTotalXP": 68.1,
    "realisedSquadTotalPoints": 55
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "name": "Template (roll transfers)",
      "shortLabel": "Template",
      "category": "Heuristic",
      "description": "No transfers",
      "objectiveEP": 52.6,
      "realisedPoints": 78,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "B.Fernandes",
      "viceCaptain": "M.Salah",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "4-4-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0,
      "realisedRankEffect": "78 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "optimiser",
      "name": "Optimiser (forecast)",
      "shortLabel": "Optimiser",
      "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)",
      "description": "Gabriel → Guéhi",
      "objectiveEP": 68.1,
      "realisedPoints": 55,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Mbeumo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -23,
      "realisedRankEffect": "55 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "name": "Evidence-informed",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence",
      "category": "Multi-Objective Agent",
      "description": "Gabriel → Guéhi",
      "objectiveEP": 68.1,
      "realisedPoints": 55,
      "varianceScore": 0,
      "transfersCount": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "captain": "Haaland",
      "viceCaptain": "Mbeumo",
      "chip": "none",
      "formation": "3-5-2",
      "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": -23,
      "realisedRankEffect": "55 pts net",
      "solverRuntimeMs": 0
    }
  ],
  "summaryAnalysis": {
    "executiveSummary": "Reconstructive replay for 2025/26 Gameweek 15. The optimiser captained Haaland (vice Mbeumo), formation 3-5-2, and made one transfer (Gabriel out, Guéhi in). It scored 55 net points after hits. Pre-cutoff objective was 68.1 expected points.",
    "keyTradeoffs": [
      "Transfers: Gabriel to Guéhi.",
      "Evidence-informed finished +0 points versus the optimiser this week.",
      "Fixtures come from the final season export, so mid-season revisions are not in this snapshot.",
      "The cutoff is reconstructed as first kickoff minus 90 minutes, not the live FPL deadline clock.",
      "No private manager state (exact bank, selling prices, chip timing) was archived at the time."
    ],
    "shadowPrices": {
      "budgetPerMillionXP": 0,
      "transferMarginalValueXP": 0,
      "benchPointsExpectancy": 0
    },
    "divergenceNotes": "This is a reconstructive historical replay, not a live two-hour freeze. Inputs were rebuilt after the season; see Methods and the limitations on this page."
  }
}