{ "season": "2026-27", "gw": 3, "title": "Gameweek 3 North London Derby Prep & West Ham Away Decision", "deadline": "2026-08-31T10:00:00Z", "status": "live", "provenance": { "modelVersion": "v2.4.1-rc3", "frozenAt": "2026-08-31T08:00:00Z", "snapshotHash": "sha256:7c92b7a2d488e3fa0895c32b567b489ef0c239458e0a29367d5668b02ea6f381", "datasetId": "fpl-ep-202627-gw3-freeze", "solverEngine": "Highs-MILP-v1.7.2", "executionTimestamp": "2026-08-31T08:02:19Z", "solverParameters": { "horizonWeeks": 5, "decayRate": 0.85, "hitPenalty": 4, "riskAversion": 0.15, "freeTransferConservationWeight": 0.8, "maxPlayersPerClub": 3, "teamBudgetCap": 100.8 }, "isDemoSample": true, "datasetKind": "illustrative-sample" }, "validatedPlan": { "armId": "optimiser", "armName": "Mixed-Integer Linear Solver (ILP)", "formation": "3-4-3", "bank": 0.2, "hitCost": 0, "freeTransfersAvailable": 1, "chipUsed": "none", "captain": { "id": "p_haaland_mci", "webName": "Haaland", "fullName": "Erling Haaland", "team": "MCI", "position": "FWD", "cost": 15.2, "projectedMinutes": 89, "expectedPoints": 8.85, "realisedPoints": null, "isCaptain": true, "multiplier": 2, "opponent": "WHU (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "xGI": 0.98, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.36, "selectedByPercent": 63.4 }, "viceCaptain": { "id": "p_palmer_che", "webName": "Palmer", "fullName": "Cole Palmer", "team": "CHE", "position": "MID", "cost": 10.6, "projectedMinutes": 88, "expectedPoints": 7.82, "realisedPoints": null, "isViceCaptain": true, "opponent": "CRY (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.84, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.38, "selectedByPercent": 46.8 }, "startingXI": [ { "id": "p_raya_ars", "webName": "Raya", "fullName": "David Raya", "team": "ARS", "position": "GKP", "cost": 5.5, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 4.62, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "BHA (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.49, "selectedByPercent": 27.8 }, { "id": "p_saliba_ars", "webName": "Saliba", "fullName": "William Saliba", "team": "ARS", "position": "DEF", "cost": 6, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 4.55, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "BHA (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.49, "selectedByPercent": 40.1 }, { "id": "p_gvardiol_mci", "webName": "Gvardiol", "fullName": "Joško Gvardiol", "team": "MCI", "position": "DEF", "cost": 6, "projectedMinutes": 87, "expectedPoints": 4.38, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "WHU (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.36, "selectedByPercent": 35 }, { "id": "p_robinson_ful", "webName": "Robinson", "fullName": "Antonee Robinson", "team": "FUL", "position": "DEF", "cost": 4.6, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 4.2, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "IPS (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.39, "selectedByPercent": 11.2 }, { "id": "p_saka_ars", "webName": "Saka", "fullName": "Bukayo Saka", "team": "ARS", "position": "MID", "cost": 10.1, "projectedMinutes": 89, "expectedPoints": 7.35, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "BHA (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.82, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.49, "selectedByPercent": 36.8 }, { "id": "p_palmer_che", "webName": "Palmer", "fullName": "Cole Palmer", "team": "CHE", "position": "MID", "cost": 10.6, "projectedMinutes": 88, "expectedPoints": 7.82, "realisedPoints": null, "isViceCaptain": true, "opponent": "CRY (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2, "xGI": 0.84, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.38, "selectedByPercent": 46.8 }, { "id": "p_son_tot", "webName": "Son", "fullName": "Heung-min Son", "team": "TOT", "position": "MID", "cost": 10, "projectedMinutes": 86, "expectedPoints": 6.8, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "NEW (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "xGI": 0.73, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.26, "selectedByPercent": 16.5 }, { "id": "p_jota_liv", "webName": "Jota", "fullName": "Diogo Jota", "team": "LIV", "position": "MID", "cost": 7.6, "projectedMinutes": 76, "expectedPoints": 5.95, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "MUN (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "xGI": 0.68, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.29, "selectedByPercent": 23.4 }, { "id": "p_haaland_mci", "webName": "Haaland", "fullName": "Erling Haaland", "team": "MCI", "position": "FWD", "cost": 15.2, "projectedMinutes": 89, "expectedPoints": 8.85, "realisedPoints": null, "isCaptain": true, "multiplier": 2, "opponent": "WHU (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "xGI": 0.98, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.36, "selectedByPercent": 63.4 }, { "id": "p_isak_new", "webName": "Isak", "fullName": "Alexander Isak", "team": "NEW", "position": "FWD", "cost": 8.5, "projectedMinutes": 86, "expectedPoints": 6.42, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "TOT (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 3, "xGI": 0.74, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.28, "selectedByPercent": 56.9 }, { "id": "p_joao_pedro_bha", "webName": "Joao Pedro", "fullName": "Joao Pedro", "team": "BHA", "position": "FWD", "cost": 5.6, "projectedMinutes": 82, "expectedPoints": 4.6, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "ARS (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 4, "xGI": 0.52, "cleanSheetProbability": 0.18, "selectedByPercent": 28.1 } ], "bench": [ { "id": "p_valdimarsson_bre", "webName": "Valdimarsson", "fullName": "Hákon Valdimarsson", "team": "BRE", "position": "GKP", "cost": 4, "projectedMinutes": 0, "expectedPoints": 0, "realisedPoints": null, "benchOrder": 1, "opponent": "SOU (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 2 }, { "id": "p_rogers_avl", "webName": "Rogers", "fullName": "Morgan Rogers", "team": "AVL", "position": "MID", "cost": 5.1, "projectedMinutes": 85, "expectedPoints": 4.15, "realisedPoints": null, "benchOrder": 2, "opponent": "LEI (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2 }, { "id": "p_munoz_cry", "webName": "Muñoz", "fullName": "Daniel Muñoz", "team": "CRY", "position": "DEF", "cost": 5, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 3.45, "realisedPoints": null, "benchOrder": 3, "opponent": "CHE (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 4 }, { "id": "p_faes_lei", "webName": "Faes", "fullName": "Wout Faes", "team": "LEI", "position": "DEF", "cost": 4, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 2.4, "realisedPoints": null, "benchOrder": 4, "opponent": "AVL (H)", "isHome": true, "fixtureDifficulty": 3 } ], "transfersIn": [ { "id": "p_robinson_ful", "webName": "Robinson", "fullName": "Antonee Robinson", "team": "FUL", "position": "DEF", "cost": 4.6, "projectedMinutes": 90, "expectedPoints": 4.2, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "IPS (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 2 } ], "transfersOut": [ { "id": "p_barco_bha", "webName": "Barco", "fullName": "Valentín Barco", "team": "BHA", "position": "DEF", "cost": 4, "projectedMinutes": 0, "expectedPoints": 0, "realisedPoints": null, "opponent": "ARS (A)", "isHome": false, "fixtureDifficulty": 4 } ], "transferActions": [ { "playerIn": { "id": "p_robinson_ful", "webName": "Robinson", "team": "FUL", "position": "DEF", "cost": 4.6, "expectedPoints": 4.2 }, "playerOut": { "id": "p_barco_bha", "webName": "Barco", "team": "BHA", "position": "DEF", "sellPrice": 4, "expectedPoints": 0 }, "netCostDelta": 0.6, "netXPDelta3GW": 4.1, "rationale": "Loan departure / non-playing deadwood elimination. Barco confirmed out; Robinson enters Fulham's favorable Ipswich fixture with 0.39 CS expectancy." } ], "projectedSquadTotalXP": 67.8, "realisedSquadTotalPoints": null }, "arms": [ { "id": "baseline", "name": "Template Baseline (Rolling Horizon Heuristic)", "shortLabel": "Baseline Heuristic", "category": "Heuristic", "description": "Retains Barco on third bench spot to preserve 2 Free Transfers for post-international break wildcard/restructure.", "objectiveEP": 64.1, "realisedPoints": null, "varianceScore": 14.8, "transfersCount": 0, "hits": 0, "captain": "Haaland", "viceCaptain": "Palmer", "chip": "none", "formation": "3-5-2", "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 0, "realisedRankEffect": null, "solverRuntimeMs": 20 }, { "id": "optimiser", "name": "Mixed-Integer Linear Solver (ILP)", "shortLabel": "Optimiser (MILP)", "category": "Mixed-Integer Linear (ILP)", "description": "Resolves zero-minute bench liability: Barco to Robinson (£4.6m), switches formation to 3-4-3 promoting João Pedro into starting XI over Rogers.", "objectiveEP": 67.8, "realisedPoints": null, "varianceScore": 13.2, "transfersCount": 1, "hits": 0, "captain": "Haaland", "viceCaptain": "Palmer", "chip": "none", "formation": "3-4-3", "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 3.7, "realisedRankEffect": null, "solverRuntimeMs": 485 }, { "id": "agent", "name": "Multi-Objective Agent (EV + Rank Ceiling)", "shortLabel": "Agent (Multi-Obj)", "category": "Multi-Objective Agent", "description": "Differential captaincy arm targeting Palmer vs Crystal Palace home (xGI 0.84, pen duty) over Haaland away fixture.", "objectiveEP": 68.4, "realisedPoints": null, "varianceScore": 21, "transfersCount": 1, "hits": 0, "captain": "Palmer", "viceCaptain": "Haaland", "chip": "none", "formation": "3-4-3", "decisionDeltaVsBaseline": 4.3, "realisedRankEffect": null, "solverRuntimeMs": 1780 } ], "summaryAnalysis": { "executiveSummary": "GW3 represents an in-flight decision round with live fixtures pending. The MILP solver opted to extinguish zero-minute risk by replacing departed Barco with Fulham's Robinson, while flexing into a 3-4-3 shape. Projected squad total is 67.8 xP with Haaland retained as consensus captain.", "keyTradeoffs": [ "Barco deadwood vs rolling 2 FTs: Holding Barco sacrifices defensive auto-sub insurance against late warmup pulls. Robinson gives immediate +4.20 xP security against Ipswich.", "Captaincy split: Haaland (WHU away, 8.85 xP) vs Palmer (CRY home, 7.82 xP). Baseline and Optimiser stick to Haaland; Agent arm exploits Palmer's 90th percentile ceiling scenario.", "Bench order selection: Rogers vs Muñoz vs Faes. Rogers awarded first bench slot due to 85 projected minutes vs Muñoz's low clean sheet expectancy at Stamford Bridge." ], "shadowPrices": { "budgetPerMillionXP": 0.47, "transferMarginalValueXP": 1.92, "benchPointsExpectancy": 1.84 }, "divergenceNotes": "Realised points are pending fixture settlement. Snapshot hash was cryptographically verified and immutable as of 2026-08-31T08:00:00Z." }, "datasetKind": "illustrative-sample" }